Conspiracy Theory

Was the Champions League draw fixed?

Quarter-final ties correctly predicted 90 minutes before the draw

Liverpool Echo

[click image to enlarge]

I’m not usually one for crazy conspiracy theories, but this one looks relatively credible. At 10.28 this morning, someone posted a thread on the Liverpool Echo forum (see it here) correctly predicting the Champions League quarter-final ties. No bookies were taking bets on the ties all morning either, suggesting some sort of shenanigans were going down:

Rumour going around draw has been leaked….. this is no doubt rubbish but if Rumour is true it’s LFC – arsenal and Chelsea – fenerbache and manure v roma
No bookies will take bets on the draw either…….
Let the draw commence. Comeeee on!

If my maths are correct (which they probably aren’t), there’s a 1 in 64 chance of this chap correctly predicting the ties, and it’s mighty suspicious that the bookmakers would stop taking bets so early. Then again, I watched the boring draw myself and didn’t see any funny business, so could there really be an evil eastern betting syndicates pulling the strings here? Is Elvis still alive? Did we really land on the moon? Is Paul Daniels the most evil creature on the planet? Etc…

37 responses so far
  • Jason Bourne // March 14, 2008 at 3:18 pm

    Man I love conspiracy theroies. Paul McCartney is dead is my favourite

  • sagat // March 14, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    Actually this is very credible. I read the forum post at 10:50am. I watched the live CL draw on Eurosport and the commentator said “they did a practice run this morning and all the English teams were set apart” Maybe they fixed it then? only time will tell

  • Billy Furry // March 14, 2008 at 4:20 pm

    something stinks, and for once it’s not Ronaldo’s finger

  • OutlawJosey // March 14, 2008 at 4:31 pm

    Totally credible Man U / Barca / Chelsea / Liverpool are the teams they would have picked.

  • Dibble // March 14, 2008 at 5:23 pm

    Easily fixed with hot/cold/sticky/rough balls. Derren Brown does much better tricks all the time.

    An all English SF quartet would lose UEFA audiences and ad revenue on the continent.

  • Stefano // March 14, 2008 at 7:47 pm

    You’re odd are incorrect, the it’s 119/1 to guess the draw correctly. 100% fixed, no reason bookies wouldn’t take this bet.

  • arse biscuit // March 14, 2008 at 7:53 pm

    If the bookies suspended the market – end of. Fixed.

  • canadiandog // March 14, 2008 at 8:47 pm

    This tip for the draw was touted around on Tuesday this week. Most people who were told about the expected draw dismissed it as betting rumour. It was certainly a surprise when the tip turned out to be true, and raises serious issues within the game. The investigation surely has to start with the bookies, at the very least they must have had suspicians when their staff are being told by managers not to take this bet………

  • sagat // March 14, 2008 at 9:15 pm

    UEFA have denied it was fixed:

    i would like to hear from this guy who posted this article

  • andreas // March 14, 2008 at 9:23 pm

    Well… what did you expect, UEFA to come out and say that they rigged it?

  • Cem ARGUN // March 14, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    Well there’s this hot&cold draw balls issue. So fixing a draw might be possible without a permanent mark or color difference on the balls.

    If there’s a fixed draw. I think only UEFA can be held responsible. Imagine for once, the highly probable all Brit / “Premier League beats Champions League” semi-finals. UEFA would lose tremendous money and credibility in a scenario where Premier League dominating the last two sequence of the Champions League. Spain, Italy, Germany pissed off, lost TV ratings, angry sponsors for not reaching enough global audiences… Platini’s nightmare! So if he draw is fixed, it’s fixed for the good of the Champions League… The intention behind shouldn’t be for one or more team’s favor. That might also be the reason it’s leaked.

  • CRidge // March 15, 2008 at 8:49 am

    Another odds calculation ;) As far as I can see, there is 105 different ways the draw can be made. Has anyone looked around for 104 other forums where this guy might have posted? ; )

  • LUFC // March 15, 2008 at 9:22 am

    its a 1/105 chance.

  • arse biscuit // March 15, 2008 at 9:46 am

    nice idea CRidge – are you Derrin Brown in disguise? It was a fix by UEFA – all seeded teams drew home game 2nd…

  • Dan // March 15, 2008 at 10:31 am

    Told you it was 1/105 chance Ryan ;)

  • Michael Gatt // March 15, 2008 at 10:45 am

    Just before the draw was made, 5 of us at work wrote our predictions… one of us got ALL 4 matches right. So there you have it. I’m sure that there were millions of people trying to guess. Some are bound to have got it right.

  • Nick Sutton // March 15, 2008 at 10:55 am

    Totally agree with Michael Gatt, thousands and thusands of people were posting their predictions on the web. In terms of odds it would have been stranger if it hadn’t been predicted correctly

  • tonycxd // March 15, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    You’re not getting it. He {the poster} didn’t say “I think it will be this and that”, he must have some confidence in his source to get online and start spouting off in his community about a fixed draw.

    It stinks. FIX!

  • conbcfc // March 15, 2008 at 2:38 pm

    the bloke didn’t write a prediction he said he has a rumour that it would be this, so five blokes at work guessing is totally different. It stinks, why would he say that of he didnt have something????
    it wouldnt suprise me if it was a fix football is going corrupt with all the money involved soon it will be as fake as wrestling!!!!!!

  • Tico // March 15, 2008 at 4:53 pm

    The bookies stop taking bets if one option is being picked disproportionally. That would suggest either foreknowledge from a lot of people that have been tipped of, i.e. many ‘witnesses’. Another option is, which is so ridiculous it should be dismissed out of hand, is that UEFA contacted the bet offices about the ‘fix’. I would put my bet on mass ‘aping’ due to a belief in a rumour, that in hindsight, is corroborated. It would be interesting to have information from the bookies about other events and their outcomes for which bets were stopped.

    If the UEFA were to rig the draw they will do anything to prevent it from being found out. Leaking info so that it is reflected in betting would jeopardise that strategy. Therefore, I don’t buy this conspiracy at all. For this one success story I would be surprised not to find 59 failed predictions on various low-key football forums.

  • Champions League Draw ... - GT-R Register - Official Nissan Skyline and GTR Owners Club forum // March 15, 2008 at 5:07 pm

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  • Michael Gatt // March 16, 2008 at 10:22 am

    I’m sure if you have time to trudge through lots of forums, you’re bound to find lots of these “rumours”, backing the wrong predictions. But they’re never mentioned, cos obviously they were not right.
    Oh how they laughed at “senile” Alex Ferguson when he suggested a fix a few years ago!!!

  • ??? // March 17, 2008 at 4:14 pm

    not only has the rumour got the correct matches but its got it exactly how it was said on the draw in the same order and it has the same teams at home in the first leg as the true draw . its a blatant fix!!

  • michael burley // April 1, 2008 at 8:07 pm

    think about it, if it was fixed would they send man united to play roma after all the things that happend last season

  • ??!! // April 3, 2008 at 6:19 pm

    yer i agree why the hell would they send man u to play roma. even uefa arnt that stupid

  • Confused // April 15, 2008 at 2:56 pm

    It was me who posted it, but hey guess what liverpool still get through.

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  • confused // August 10, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    hi, i contacted the bookies about the bet and they said no to me, and then the rumours started.

  • ben massey // May 7, 2009 at 6:08 pm

    the champions league is definitely a fix. just look at the finances of the winning clubs over the past few years. suspicious to say the least. and we bring it right up to date when man united beat an arsenal who seemed to refuse to play and chelsea go out to a barcelona team after 4 or 5 solid penalty claims. joke. its all about the money.

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