Why Liverpool will finally beat Marseille at Anfield tonight

Liverpool/Marseille, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2, Free £10 bet

Ryan Babel gets stuck in

Rafael Benitez will tonight become Liverpool’s most experienced European boss of all time, by taking charge of his 66th game as Reds boss (one greater than Bill Shankly). The Spaniard can also equal Bob Paisley’s record for most European wins as Liverpool boss with a victory, and while they have failed to win their last two home games against Marseille, chickendinner believe it will be third time lucky tonight. Here’s why:

Since Marseille won 1-0 at Anfield last October, they have lost six consecutive away games in the Champions League and UEFA Cup (excluding qualifiers). After losing their opening three games in this year’s competition, Marseille appeared to turn the corner by beating PSV 3-0, but since then they have lost at home to Lorient and drawn with Lille in Ligue 1.

Liverpool have won their final home group game in three of Rafael Benitez’s previous four seasons, drawing with Real Betis on the other occasion. Porto (4-1), PSV (2-0) and Olympiakos (3-1) have all been beaten by margins of two goals or more in this corresponding fixture in recent years. In contrast, Marseille lost their final away game 2-1 in Besiktas last year. In the near fourteen months since Marseille’s win at Anfield, Liverpool have lost just two of 36 home games, one against Manchester United last December and then the shock loss to Barnsley in February. Liverpool haven’t gone two home games without a win since last October either – a good sign considering they drew their last home game with Fulham.

While it’s hard to imagine the Reds losing, there is a strong chance of them conceding tonight. Three consecutive Anfield clean sheets in the league don’t change the fact that Liverpool have conceded in their last eight Champions League games, excluding qualifiers. Marseille have scored in every league away game this season and only PSV have shut them out in the Champions League. Liverpool have let in precisely one goal in each of their four Champions League group games which makes 888sport’s 7/5 on Marseille scoring one worth looking at.

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