Why Man City will struggle in the UEFA Cup tonight
Manchester City/Hamburg, UEFA Cup Qtr-final, 7.45pm, ITV4
Paddy Power and Bet365 are offering 3/1 on Manchester City overcoming their 3-1 deficit in tonight’s match with Hamburg, but the statistics suggest that they will have to perform out of their skins to do so. Our friends at chickendinner say:
» Hamburg have only won five of their 14 away league games and have drawn one and lost four of their five visits to fellow Bundesliga top six sides.
» Despite this, their European record is amazing. The German side have won all five of their UEFA Cup away games, scoring 12 and conceding just three. They have scored at least two in every game and kept three clean sheets.
» Playing the second-leg at home is unlikely to hand City a huge advantage. Hamburg have been home first in two of their previous three knockout games this season. In the last round they went into their second-leg with Galatasaray level but actually won in “Hell” to progress.
» Manchester City have won just one of their last six European home games by two goals and only two of their 18 games in 2009 have ended with two-goal triumphs (Aston Villa and Aalborg).
» Over three years and 24 games have passed since Hamburg last lost by two goals in the UEFA Cup.