Stat Attack

And the winner of the 2009/10 Premier League Golden Boot Award is…

… revealed in the fascinating trends and statistics below

Current Golden Boot holder Nicolas Anelka

The bookmakers seem to agree on the 15 leading contenders to be next season’s Premier League top-scorer. they are:

Fernando Torres, Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka, Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard, Michael Owen, Robinho, Robin van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor, Dimitar Berbatov, Jermain Defoe, Carlos Tevez, Andrei Arshavin, Frank Lampard and Roque Santa Cruz.

Through a process of elimination, our stat-lovin’ friends at chickendinner have discovered that Nicolas Anelka will not successfully defend his top scorer award, and the eventual winner is quite surprising.

Here it comes…

Over the last decade Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2000-01) is the only player to have won it in his first season with a new club.
That rules out: Michael Owen, Carlos Tevez, Roque Santa Cruz

The last nine winners were all playing for a Big Four side.
That rules out: Robinho, Jermain Defoe

Cristiano Ronaldo is the only player to have been Premier League top-scorer without always playing as an out-and-out striker.
That rules out: Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Andrei Arshavin

The last British top-scorer was Kevin Phillips in 1999-00.
That rules out: Wayne Rooney

Still standing: Fernando Torres, Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka, Robin van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor and Dimitar Berbatov

Every Premier League top-scorer ever bar Michael Owen – who came joint-top in 1997-98 having played just twice the previous year – hit double figures in the league the season before.
That rules out: Didier Drogba, Dimitar Berbatov

Alan Shearer remains the only player to have followed his first ever outright Golden Boot win with victory again a year later.
That rules out: Nicolas Anelka

Not since John Aldridge in 1987-88 has a Liverpool player ended a top-flight campaign as outright top-scorer. He and Ian Rush are the only Reds to have done so in the last 99 years.
That rules out: Fernando Torres

So that leaves Arsenal strikers Robin van Persie and Emmanuel Adebayor. Thierry Henry was top-scorer in the last two World Cup years, while Ian Wright hit 23 in 1993-94 (when he didn’t even have one to look forward to!) and Dennis Bergkamp was just two goals off in 1997-98.

Every winner since Kevin Phillips in 1999-00 had scored at least 16 goals in a season in one of Europe’s five main leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1) in the past. Van Persie’s best is 11, whereas Adebayor scored 24 goals in 2007-08.
That rules out: Robin van Persie, leaving Emmanuel Adebayorwho is available at 28/1 on Betfair – as the unlikely last man standing.

6 responses so far
  • Marco // July 10, 2009 at 2:10 pm

    well he is WIFI Enable and machine washable so why not

  • Paul (No1Fan) // July 10, 2009 at 3:02 pm

    I love the analysis that led to Adebayor. Great stuff. A bit unlikely though…

  • Steve // July 10, 2009 at 3:21 pm

    That will be impressive with African cup of nations. I suspect he is more likely to top score in that.

  • Cristiano Ronaldo Aveiro // July 10, 2009 at 4:07 pm

    I´ll sure miss winning those easy titles…
    one day, I´ll return to play for my favourite club in England… Barnet
    I used to play for them in FIFA MANAGER, and I used to lead them to the CL title, I´ll do it in real life.
    1, 2, 3, Halla Barnet

  • Bokolis // July 10, 2009 at 5:47 pm

    All having missed significant time from injury, Drogba, Torres and Adebayor have room for upside. Rooney and Berbatov round out the list of most likely winners.

    I don’t buy the logic behind eliminating Rooney and Berbatov. If anything, with Poof-naldo out of the way, they will have more to go around…provided that Satan doesn’t call in his deal with Fergie.

    If Drogba hadn’t turned into a cunt, I’d give him a better chance. He and Anelka also figure to cannibalize each other, so there’s no room for upside for the latter.

    Only injury would derail Torres, not his choice of badge. He has a very favorable situation.

    A healthy Adebayor with a healthy Cesc may be the optimum. Adebayor will have to dial it back up, but has proven he is capable.

    Adebayor’s dad would be so proud. I shall chant, I mean cheer for him.

  • Sofie // July 10, 2009 at 7:22 pm

    I agree with the logic, except for the Torres bit: he played in 24 games last season (4 of which were appearances as a sub) and scored 14 goals. This was because he was injured, and then Gerrard was out when Torres was fit.
    If both Gerrard and Torres are fit the whole season, Torres has a very, very good chance of being top scorer. Liverpool want the title desperately, if they play like they did the last 5 or so games of last season, they’ll win it, and Torres will get a ton of goals (as will Gerrard).
    My money’s on El Nino.

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