HOW TO STAY UP

Lessons that QPR, Norwich and Swansea can learn from

A chart showing the percentage of the last 12 promoted clubs’ signings that had played in the Premier League before…

A chart showing the percentage of the last 12 promoted clubs’ signings that had played in the Premier League before

With just over five weeks remaining before the 2011-12 Premier League season gets underway, none of the three newcomers have done any business to truly inspire confidence in their ability to last longer than 12 months in the top-flight.

There is plenty of time to act though and two basic strategies to consider: either signing guys with Premier League experience, a disadvantage being that they may have had unsuccessful spells higher up the ladder, and the alternative being to buy from abroad or the division that they have just left.

The Spoiler rated the former as the safer if pricier policy, but tested both by looking at the last dozen promoted sides and the percentage of their summer purchases and loans that had appeared at least once in the top tier before.

The results, as illustrated in the graph above with those that stayed up depicted in green and those that went straight back down shown in red, leaned in favour of capturing those already at home in the Premier League.

Each club that gambled with 39% or fewer of their new additions having operated at that level previously were punished with relegation, while Burnley’s figures are exaggerated by the arrival of the likes of Tyrone Mears (five games) and Richard Eckersley (two).

The clearest advertisement for buying top-flight experience is provided by 2008-09, as West Brom started with the best squad but took too many risks, finishing bottom as Stoke and Hull survived by focussing their recruitment drive on Premier League stalwarts.

So having boldly brought in Steve Morison and Elliott Bennett, it may now be time for Norwich to take a look at the likes of Keith Andrews and Danny Higginbotham.


4 responses so far
  • Lenon // July 6, 2011 at 7:52 pm

    Do I look like a cricket fan? Stop with all the stats mate.

  • John // July 6, 2011 at 10:52 pm

    Even if I don’t enjoy all stats…these are really good! I have to say it when I see it…Nice Job.

  • JamJam // July 7, 2011 at 9:06 am

    Yeah… it is good, better informed content makes for a more intelligent level for football analysis. Lenon if you just want the tits and 3/4 word rumour round up then just go to the sun.

  • Ieuan // July 12, 2011 at 3:05 pm

    Silly analysis really, you can tell very little from this.

    Sunderland, Wolves, Birmingham, WBA and Newcastle staying up had much more to do with having squads that already possessed premier league experience from previous stints coupled with bigger budgets due to previous stints/parachute money.

    Hull (who bombed in the second year after investing and ended up in financial problems as a result – not exactly a good example) and Stoke are the only outlayers in that analysis.

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