Porto/ Manchester Utd, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2
Arsenal/ Villarreal, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 3

(When nervous, Fergie can’t help but break into the Macarena)

There isn’t too much value to be found if you fancy individually backing the English teams to do well tonight, but the best price we have found is on a Manchester United/Arsenal win double, where Paddy Power will pay out £33.73 on a £10 stake.

Here’s why that could be a worthwhile bet:

English domination
It’s been almost two years since an English side were knocked out of the Champions League by foreign opposition.

Arsenal’s home comforts
The Gunners haven’t lost a European home match against foreign opposition since September 2003, when they lost their opening group game 3-1 against Inter Milan. Arsenal have conceded just one goal in ten home matches and have won their last four.

Villarreal are struggling
As well as being without a win in three games, the Yellow Submarine have won just one of their last ten away games, losing six times over that period. That run started with a 2-0 loss to Celtic, who finished bottom of their Champions League group.

Manchester Utd will be unfazed by Porto’s strong home record
Manchester United are unbeaten in 22 Champions League games and showed their ability to win daunting European away games at the quarter-final stage last season: they travelled to a Roma side who lost just one domestic home game all season and had gone 40 months unbeaten at the Stadio Olimpico in Europe and won 2-0.

Estadio do Dragao
The idea that Manchester United are doomed has stemmed from Porto’s overhyped home record against English sides. The reality is that in none of their six meetings with British sides since Jose Mourinho left in 2004 have they outperformed their opposition on aggregate. The fact they haven’t lost at home over that period owes just as much to the fact none of their opponents have needed to win…

(In 2004-05, Porto won their final group game against Mourinho’s Chelsea 2-1 but the Blues had already beaten them 3-1 at Stamford Bridge and had qualified for the next round. In 2005-06, Porto held Rangers to a 1-1 draw which wasn’t much use as they had already lost 3-2 at Ibrox and went out at the group stage, whereas Alex McLeish’s side moved on to the next round. In 2006-07, Porto held Arsenal 0-0 at home in a final group game that they needed to win to drop the group. Having already won 2-0 at the Emirates, a draw was the result Arsenal needed and they were successful. In the next round they held Chelsea 1-1 at home but they needed to win the home leg because they were beaten 2-1 in the return at Stamford Bridge. Last season their 1-1 home draw with Liverpool was overshadowed by a 4-1 thrashing away and their 2-0 win over Arsenal this year paled in comparison to their 4-0 drubbing at the Emirates. In all the above instances, Porto’s opponents could afford to draw or in some cases be beaten but Manchester United can’t, so will adjust accordingly.)

Porto’s home record this season is nothing to boast about. They have failed to beat any of their top seven rivals in Portugal at home and they were beaten by Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League.

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