The Spoiler puts its neck on the line

With the help of our well-informed chums at chickendinner, The Spoiler has compiled a list of our top tips for this weekend’s sports action. Accompanying each bet are some eye-catching odds, a link to a free bet with that bookmaker and a reason why you it’s a good bet:

1) Chelsea to fail to win at Middlesbrough - 1317/1000 with Ladbrokes
Over the last three seasons Boro have lost just two of their twelve home league games against the Big Four. Click here for more information.

2) Manchester United to beat West Brom by a one-goal margin - 3/1 with Paddy Power
Five of the Red Devils’ last six home league victories against the reigning Championship champions have been by a one-goal margin. Click here for more information.

3) Daniel Evans to be eliminated from the X Factor - 4.1 on Betfair
He’s too old to win and the judges don’t like him. Click here for more information.

4) Lewis Hamilton to win the Chinese Grand Prix - 1.84 on Betfair
Hamilton had a nightmare in Shanghai last year but so far this year he has improved drastically at every race he finished off the podium in last season. Click here for more information, including why Robert Kubica might be a good bet for a podium finish.

5) Stoke to beat Spurs - 11/5 on Paddy Power
Tottenham have a terrible record over the last four years away to newly-promoted club and considering they’ve yet to win this season, that record could get worse. Click here for more information.

Don’t rush home from work, England take a while to get going

Our friends at chickendinner have been looking at ways for you to make money on tonight’s England match and believe that betting on the second-half containing more goals than the first is a sound bet. Here’s why:

» In each of England’s last five competitive games there have been more goals scored in the second half than there have in the opening forty-five.

» The margin by which the second-half has outscored the first has increased as the run has gone on:

World Cup Qualifier, 5.15pm, ITV 1, £10 Free Bet

If England can score four goals in Croatia against a team that had never previously lost a home qualifier then surely they we can expect forty against a country that most people have only heard of because of Borat. But alas no. Lampard and Gerrard will celebrate their reunion by tripping over one another and the impatient home support will get angry when England fail to score in the first five minutes. Here’s why England will only win 2-0 or 3-0, according to our friends at chickendinner:

Why England will only score two or three

» England have score exactly two goals in each of Fabio Capello’s three games at Wembley, as well as in the last home game before his arrival, the 2-3 loss to Croatia.

» The Three Lions scored three goals in each of the three home games prior to that, which means that in the last seven England internationals at Wembley - England have always scored between two and three goals.

» From 2005 onwards, Kazakhstan’s heaviest margin of defeat in away qualifiers has been 3-0 losses to Denmark, Portugal and Croatia.

Click here for more invaluable betting advice including why Kazakhstan won’t score and why England will have to wait a while before breaking the deadlock.

Special Spoiler offer: Claim a £10 free bet with Paddy Power 

Make money from a busy weekend of football

With the help of our friends at chickendinner, The Spoiler has compiled a list of some good bets to make this weekend. Accompanying each bet are some eye-catching odds, a link to a free bet with that bookmaker and a reason why you should back it:

1) Burnley to win away to Charlton - 15/8 with Ladbrokes
Charlton have lost three of their last four home games and face a Burnley side who did the double over them last season and have one their last five league clashes with the Addicks. Should Charlton lose again, expect to hear this in Alan Pardew’s post-match press conference.

2) Blackburn to beat Middlesbrough - 11/10 with Paddy Power
Paul Ince hasn’t had much luck against his former clubs in his managerial career but that looks like changing against a side who Blackburn are unbeaten in seven against, winning six. Click here for more information.

3) Under 2.5 goals in Chelsea/Liverpool - 1.68 with Betfair
None of the ten meetings between the two sides at Stamford Bridge since Roman Abramovich’s takeover has featured over 2.5 goals in ninety minutes and the average of goals per game has been one. Click here for more information.

Might be worth a pound…
While red cards in the Tyne-Wear derby are surprisingly infrequent, Paddy Power are offering 80/1 on any Sunderland player being sent off for a foul on Joey Barton. Click here to view Paddy Power’s full selection of Barton specials.