Statistics suggest that it’s all over for Wenger and co
Arsenal started last season in blistering form and it wasn’t until rain-sodden February that the cracks emerged in their title challenge. With the fixture list giving them a helping hand, everything was in place for another explosive start this year but after losing at home to Hull last week and escaping the Stadium of Light with a fortuitous point today, the Gunners could end the weekend as low as sixth, with Manchester United poised to overtake with their game in hand.
These stats suggest that Arsene Wenger might as well raise the white flag now:
In each of the three seasons that Arsenal won the Premier League, and in their near miss last year, they were in the top two after seven games.
In two of their title winning seasons, as well as last year, Arsenal went unbeaten through the first twelve games.
The last time Arsenal lost more than one of their first eight games - 2005-06 - they finished fourth, 24 points off champions Chelsea.
Just one of the teams Arsenal have faced this season finished in the top half last year, compared to four of Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool’s first seven opponents.
Using the previous play-off winners Derby in place of Hull and last year’s 18th-placed side Reading in place of West Brom, Arsenal took nineteen points from the equivalent seven fixtures last season, compared to thirteen this year.
So are Arsenal out of the running already or are they just doing things the hard way this season? Let us know by voting below and leaving a comment.
The bookies currently fancy Big Phil’s men over Man Utd
Earlier in the summer, Manchester Utd were leading the Premiership betting race by a country mile, yet all this talk of unsettled wingers, mystery viruses and Rio Ferdinand’s rapping debut have put them slightly behind those rich chaps from West London. Chelsea currently sit at 1.86/1, Manchester Utd at 2/1, Arsenal at 5.2/1 and Liverpool at 6.8/1.
chickendinner help us spend our betting tokens wisely
Fergie’s spritely young men are gearing up for another title assault, and unfortunately for everyone else, it looks like everyone’s favourite bronzed Portuguese chap will be helping them. The Red Devils secured three titles in a row from 1998/99-2000/01, and here’s why they could do the same thing once again…
Bet on the Premier League title race using the best odds available here
» On the previous occasion that United won successive Premier League titles (1998/99, 1999/00), they went on to secure the title for a third season.
» The last time Manchester United were crowned European Champions (1999), they topped the Premier League table the following season. United are reigning European champions.
The Manchester Utd masterplan relies on another six points
Those who weren’t distracted by female steward kickings and groundsmen brawls on Saturday may have noticed that Sir Alex left Tevez and Ronaldo out of the starting line up, and played the cautious negative play that we were all treated to at the Nou Camp. It’s fair to rest some players for the Champions League games, but Fergie’s nonchalance at this stage of the title race could prove very costly.
So, were his cocky tactics a wise decision in light of United’s run in, or will it prove to be his undoing when West Ham or Wigan spoil the party?
Sure, Chelsea are favourites to come away from Merseyside with three points tonight,but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Avram Grant will get a good dressing down from his Russian billionaire friend tomorrow morning.
The damning statistics
* Chelsea have failed to beat any of the other top seven Premier League teams away from home.
* Chelsea didn’t win any of their last five league matches of the 2006/07 season. [In fact, they drew all five of them, and I think there’s great value in a 5/2 stalemate tonight.]
When Avram Grant took the helm at Stamford Bridge in September, Chelsea had won just two of a possible six league games. Admittedly, Mr Expressionless has increased the win rate, but the team are still five points off the leaders (like they were back in September) and they still play unsexy football.
Today, Grant claims that he has done an incredible job at Chelsea, turning round a season that was destined to be average. Do you agree with Captain Fantastic’s opinion of himself? Or has he squandered the resources available to him? Votes and comments below, please.
It was a devastating shock to see Steve Bruce help Sir Alex Ferguson out at Stamford Bridge last night, and it means that the race for the title will only really get interesting if Wigan beat Manchester Utd on the last day of the season. And something tells me that isn’t going to happen.
Drop down a division, however, and you will see a table that is much wider. Hull could go from fourth place to the top with a win against Barnsley tonight, who may face a relegation battle themselves if they lose. Bet on tonight’s action using the best odds available on the web, and make sure you do it before they decide to call the whole league one big draw.
Blue Square Premier
Exeter City/ Aldershot (Setanta Sports 1, 7.45pm)
Championship
Barnsley/ Hull City (Sky Sports 1, 7.45pm)
Setanta Sports Cup
St Patricks Athletic/ Linfield (Setanta Sports 2, 7.45pm)
Dear Chelsea Chief Exec Peter Kenyon, saw you doing your bit for China by running with the Olympic torch the other day – thought you looked pretty cool protected by those scary Chinese guys ready to Jackie Chan the life out of any student with a problem. Anyway, how’s that plan to turn Chelsea into an international superbrand going? I’ve been asking the kids what Chelsea means to them and they’re telling me the players get right up in the coach’s face when they get substituted, which they all copy at school, of course, and they moan about money and “respect” a lot, which, to be honest, the kids were already doing anyway. Not quite sure where all this leaves your brand-building – attitude’s not so easy to export nowadays, but let me know if you’ve got any centenaries or anything coming up. We’ve got a warehouse full of great “memorabilia”, much of it “signed”, and I love the way you guys know how to “monetise” your “fanbase”. It’s great! They’ll buy any old crap!
Headline Trends
» Chelsea have won all five league matches against Wigan.
» Wigan have won just one of seventeen away league games this season - 1-0 at Derby.
» Only Derby (16) have scored less league goals than Wigan (30).
All the talk at the beginning of the season was about how Arsenal would get on without Henry - most people were convinced that Spurs would even pip them as the top team in North London. And yet, Wenger has proved everyone wrong… and a bit right.
After the heartbreak of crashing out of the Champions League, the last thing Arsenal need is a morale crushing trip to Old Trafford. Unfortunately, this is exactly what they face on Sunday, and all signs point to the Gunners officially losing their title dream. Don’t agree? Have a punt here and profit from your convictions using the best odds available on t’internet.
FRIDAY
Golf
Augusta Day Two (BBC2, 9pm)
SATURDAY
Championship
West Bromwich Albion/ Watford (Sky Sports 1, 5.15pm)
Premier League
Portsmouth/ Newcastle Utd (Setanta Sports 1, 5.15pm)
Golf
Augusta Day Three (BBC2, 8.30pm)
La Liga
Recreativo/ Barcelona (Sky Sports Xtra, 9pm)
Who will enjoy a fleeting stay in the Premiership next season?
For its entry, “Terminal Five - a 21st Century Nightmare”, the British Airports Authority has unanimously been awarded this year’s gold medal in the coveted Customer Disappointment Awards. A very special mention, however, goes to all 24 teams of the Coca Cola Championship, especially those vain enough to consider themselves worthy of promotion. The judges said “Congratulations to all of you for consistently letting your fans down. When faced with the opportunity to go top, you have rarely failed to squander the opportunity and your ability to throw away points, even at home against truly pathetic opposition, has not gone unnoticed. You truly are an absolute shower, and woe betide the three of you who make it into the Premier League next season.”
The statistics
* The lowest number of league wins a team has won the title with in the last 20 years is 23 (Middlesbrough, 1995; Sunderland, 1996). Stoke can’t achieve that, Watford would need to win their remaining five, Bristol City need four from four, Hull four from five - hence West Brom have the advantage.
He usually speaks with the wisdom of a tall French Buddha, but Gunners boss Arsene Wenger is quoted in the press this morning claiming his side can still do the double:
“I still believe we will be champions in this league.
“If I didn’t believe we could win the Champions League I wouldn’t be here.”
Of course, it’s all theoretically possible, but it will require a victory at Anfield tonight and a further five league victories - something that looks a little beyond a side enduring a sticky run of form.
So what do you think? Should the footballing world take Mr Wenger’s threat seriously, or dismiss it as pre-Champions league Liverpool-baiting banter? Votes and comments below, please.
